A recent article from Freddie Mac has shown a positive forecast for home sales in 2011 as a "slight increase" due to positive employment figures. This is due to several things but as I have said in the past over and over again, Employment will be the number 1 reason we see Real Estate start to rebound.
Another important thing is that we here in the Phoenix metro area seem to rebound much faster than the rest of the country as the sun shines, no hurricanes and recreation.
Although we may see more Phoenix homes come to the market from Foreclosure, at least the banks aren't cutting their own throats with a panic REO inventory sale which negatively effects home valuation and stabilization.
Here is a copy of the article for you to read...
Increase in Home Sales
04/15/2011 By: Heather Hill Cernoch
Freddie Mac forecasts a 5 percent increase in 2011 home sales over 2010, according to its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for April.
The report also contends that refinancing will likely account for a smaller share of loan applications later this year as wealthy borrowers decrease and mortgage rates increase.
“Expect to see a bit of spring in homes sales activity during the second quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist at McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
Nothaft continued, “Sales contract signings for existing homes were up in February, positioning the market for a bounce up going into the traditional home-buying season.”
The expected pick-up in home sales is due to recent positive employment reports, the Market Outlook reveals. Unemployment declined for the fourth straight month to 8.8 percent, and net employment increased by 216,000 jobs. Real estate employment was up by 10,000 jobs since last November.
The report also calculates that the share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans will be 7 percent in 2011 compared to the 5 percent 2010 average.
Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic and housing and mortgage market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.
End of Article
My perspective? I believe it. From the decreasing inventory of homes month to month this year and the reported inventory of homes down to a 3.8% here in Phoenix that is a very low number. Just last month in March there was a 4.5% supply and this inventory is continuing to shrink.
Hot areas for a Phoenix Home such as Desert Ridge prove my point as home sales continue to remain active and prices are stable if not showing an increase in valuation according the local ARMLS numbers.
Of course, knowing where to buy is as important as it every was.
All The Best!
Stew Keene - Professional Realtor - Phoenix, Arizona